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LATAM LETTER Mar-14-2008 (1,120 words) Backgrounder. xxxi
In Latin America, the saber rattling's over, but fallout could remain
By Barbara J. Fraser
Catholic News Service
LIMA, Peru (CNS) -- When leaders of the Andean nations shook hands in the wake of a recent crisis, headlines trumpeted that the problem was settled, and the worldwide media spotlight moved elsewhere.
But the handshakes, which followed sharp words during the presidents' meeting in the Dominican Republic March 7, did not resolve the main dispute, and some analysts in the region worry that the fallout could continue.
Colombia's incursion into Ecuador to kill guerrilla leaders brought to light a little-mentioned fact that Colombia's neighbors have known for years: The Colombian conflict regularly spills over the remote, densely forested, sparsely populated borders with Panama, Venezuela, Brazil, Peru and Ecuador.
"That incident is over, but the underlying conflict remains, especially since no mechanism for resolving it has been created," Peruvian political analyst Alberto Adrianzen told Catholic News Service.
That problem is related to several others, said Father Mauricio Garcia, director of the Jesuit-run Center for Research and Popular Education in Bogota, Colombia.
Illegal drugs and weapons flow across the same borders, he said, in trade involving some of the same groups involved in the armed conflict. All of those problems have an impact that goes far beyond Colombia, and all generate so much revenue that there may be little incentive to stop them.
In addition, Adrianzen said, the fact that Colombia made a pre-emptive strike in a neighboring country without warning -- a move unprecedented in South America -- and went unpunished seems to have made leaders of other countries uneasy. While the United States defended Colombia, South American presidents generally condemned the cross-border raid.
The United States also criticized Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez for sending troops to the border with Colombia, but the saber rattling was unlikely to turn serious. Colombia and Venezuela do more than $5 billion in trade, and the two presidents have a long-standing rivalry that scores them political points at home, Father Garcia said.
In the finger-pointing that followed the Colombian attack on the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, camp in Ecuador, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe accused Ecuador of sheltering a group that is considered an international terrorist organization by the United States, which has pumped several billion dollars into Colombia's combined war on drugs and the rebels.
Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa countered that Colombia was not doing enough to police its own borders and contain the rebels. There is some truth on both sides, but neither Ecuador nor any of Colombia's other neighbors can afford to get sucked into the four-decade-plus civil war by directly attacking the rebels.
Correa also called for a multinational force to patrol the border. Adrianzen said he hoped the foreign ministers of the Organization of American States would discuss forming a multinational force when they meet March 17, although OAS Secretary-General Jose Miguel Insulza seemed unenthusiastic about the prospect while leading a fact-finding mission to Colombia and Ecuador the week of March 10.
Organizing a multinational force would be both difficult and costly, Father Garcia said. In addition, although the OAS may play a role in negotiating or monitoring agreements, its track record is spotty, he said. The OAS was charged with monitoring the demobilization of paramilitary groups in Colombia, but the Jesuit-run center has received reports that groups that supposedly laid down their arms are operating again under new names.
That problem underscores the difficulty of settling the armed conflict in Colombia, which has led to tens of thousands of deaths and given the country the second-highest level of internally displaced people in the world, after Sudan.
Government officials have said that the death of the rebels' second-in-command, who was best known by his nom de guerre, Raul Reyes, in the attack by Colombia, and the subsequent slaying of a lower-ranking leader by a rebel deserter, are signs that the group is weakening.
Some observers have gone further, suggesting that Colombia may finally be able to defeat the rebels on the battlefield. Father Garcia is skeptical, however. Colombia already spends 6.2 percent of its gross national product on the military, he said, and mustering enough strength to ensure a military victory would probably mean doubling the number of troops.
The focus on the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia sometimes leads observers to overlook the other players in the complex conflict, including paramilitary groups that have been linked to top-level politicians, and a second guerrilla group known as the National Liberation Army.
Worse, Father Garcia said, as the government seeks ways to coax armed groups to lay down their weapons, it may lose sight of those who have lost family members or been forced to flee.
"With all the programs that are available, it seems as though more attention is being paid to the perpetrators than to the victims," he said.
Father Garcia sees a humanitarian accord for the release of hostages and a negotiated solution for the war as the best options. According to Adrianzen, the FARC may also be looking for negotiations, since its leaders were in touch with the governments of Ecuador and Venezuela -- according to information found on computer hard disks, which may or may not be reliable.
The demand for giving the Revolutionary Armed Forces status as a "belligerent" rather than "terrorist" group could be another signal of desire to negotiate, Adrianzen said. Chavez made the demand, but several analysts have said they believe it was part of the deal for the release of hostages earlier this year.
Amid the uncertainty, the Catholic Church continues to play an important role, especially in aiding the victims of the violence.
"The church not only operates nationwide, but it has a capacity for service and a closeness to the people" that other groups lack, Father Garcia said.
The church also may be able to serve as a mediator, but it must tread carefully, he said. An effort at mediation last year, at Uribe's request, may have undermined the church's credibility.
"The FARC refused to accept (the bishops' conference as mediator) because it looked as though it had been named by the president," Father Garcia said. "A mediator has to be accepted by both parties."
The greatest challenge, he said, is to help repair a society torn apart by years of war.
"The challenge is for the church to play a role in reconciliation that takes all victims -- those of the guerrillas, the paramilitaries and government forces -- into account, and for it to be able to build bridges without appearing to take sides," Father Garcia said. "It must be open to all of the parties involved, and to all of the people's problems and pain."
END
Copyright (c) 2008 Catholic News Service/USCCB. All rights reserved.
This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed.
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